The SUTRA model developed at IIT Kanpur for a mathematical study of the pandemic has some optimistic inferences with regards to the impending third wave. As per reports, the authorities have come up with 3 possibilities for the future and it is expected that the third wave would be a 'ripple' if there is no variant with remarkably high virulence. Additionally, the study anticipates that the effect may be similar in scale to the second wave if a new more infectious mutant emerges.
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Given the findings of the study, the first scenario says that general life can revert to normalcy by August if no new mutant with a significantly high infection rate spreads. If it does, then the impact may be comparable to the second wave. The second scenario considers the features of the first case and adds a condition, wherein vaccination is 20% less effective. Further, the pessimistic third scenario looks at a situation, where a 25% more infectious mutant spreads. It is noteworthy that all these 3 cases stand nullified if an immunity escape variant is spotted.
As per reports, the authorities have stated that two important facets- loss of immunity in the recovered population and the efficacy of vaccination-induced immunity have to be included in the study. Subsequently, the officials are working out a way to develop a stronger system with these two things.
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As per reports, the third wave may accentuate in October with a peak lower than that of the second wave, if the first case becomes the reality. Under the second scenario, an early and higher peak may be seen in September. Further, the third case would require stringent restrictions to delay the peak. In view of the emerging cases of Delta Plus in the country, amplified interventions are needed to curtail the effects of the third wave.
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