The scale of coronavirus transmission in Madhya Pradesh has been limited to the record of sub-2000 infections for 3 days in succession. Though the state is charting a steady downward trajectory, studies by IIT Kanpur and IIT Hyderabad suggest the case meter will continue to detect around 1500 cases every day, until June 15. The thesis forwarded by the two IITs also suggests that 58% of infections during May i.e., end of the second-wave infection, were found in people aged between 18 to 44. years. This tally was restricted at 49% during the end of the first-wave infection in January.

Forecasting the surge of COVID infections in Madhya Pradesh

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In the last 24 hours, Madhya Pradesh has recorded 1,640 new coronavirus cases, marking a significant drop in the infection count, since the beginning of May. It may be noted here that the active caseload in the state has dipped to 30,899 here from the highest ever at 1,11,366 on May 11. Recovery is also progressing steadily at 95% here, aggregating 7,38,491 recoveries as yet.

As per reports, around 4 studies have been conducted in MP to estimate the pandemic trajectory here. The state aims to devise conclusive reports of these to map an unlock order that causes a minimal uptick of the infection. Trends, recovery and prevalence rates have been analysed to forecast the fate of the COVID-19 pandemic in the state.

Reports of the 4 studies conducted in MP

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The first report has been drafted by the IIT Kanpur and IIT Hyderabad which forecast the detection of 1500 positive cases till June 15 here. These reports also concluded that the rate of infection has surged in children below 18 years of age, from 6% to 7%. Further, the virus incidence has decreased in people over 60 years of age.

The second study has been conducted by the Centre for Mathematical Modeling for Infectious Disease highlighted that MP will record 500 to 1400 cases in the coming days. The Insitute of Health Matrix ad Evaluation has worked on the third reports which state that if 100% of the people wear masks, then the average number of cases will dip to 2400 infection, daily by September 1.

According to the fourth study, undertaken by the Institute of Science Bangalore, wearing masks and maintaining social distancing are crucial to the containment of the virus in the coming days. This institution has advised the government to ramp up the vaccination drive across the state to minimise the emergence of critical cases.

All studies have also hinted at the need to exercise strict caution in less affected districts and divisions as these are more vulnerable to a rampant virus spread. An intensive survey will be conducted in this regard to check COVID prevalence here. These reports have also emphasised the need to take more vigilance in the rural areas of Madhya Pradesh in the coming times.