Expected COVID third wave may peak around September-October: IIT Kanpur study highlights

Amid various speculations regarding the incidence of the third pandemic wave, an IIT Kanpur study conducted by Professor Rajesh Rajan and Mahendra Verma, states that the probable infection peak will be noted around September-October this year. The study has charted the occurrence of three scenarios, factored on the virus growth, mutation, the transmission. This forecast has been developed using the SIR model on the basis of the epidemic parameters of the second wave.

Three scenarios of COVID third wave advent

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The Indian Institute of Technology at Kanpur, has prescribed three hypotheses regarding the surge of the anticipated third wave rise. These assumptions include:

• Back-to-Normal: The upcoming third wave infection peaks in October, however, the impact is lower (shortened peak) than the second wave.
• Normal with virus mutations: The virus may peak higher than the second wave. It may even appear early in September.
• Stricter interventions: The peak is interjected with the enforcement of strict norms and social distance. This delays the peak in October and reduces its ferocity i.e., lesser in impact than the second wave.

IIT Kanpur analyses COVID trends via SIR COVID prediction model

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IIT Kanpur has devised an indigenous system to chart the trends to forecast the COVID-19 spread. Professor Rajesh Rajan and Mahendra Verma, along with their teams are using this covid19-forecast.org. module to predict even the daily surge of the infection as well. Based on the concrete analysis via this technology, the IIT Kanpur team believes that the second wave COVID threat has been waned offshore in almost every state, except in northeast India.

The COVID-19 study highlights that the country's overall infection positivity rate is less than 5%, however, states like Kerala, Goa, Sikkim and Meghalaya are still clocking over 10% test positivity. Lowering of the positivity rate has led to a reduction in the number of daily fresh cases, reducing the second wave spread. It also highlighted that though the nation's fatality ratio (deaths) has increased recently to 3.5%, the aggregate total is comparable to the first wave toll.

"At present, the model does not include vaccination, which should decrease the peak significantly. Revised model with vaccination and with more recent data on the same is being worked out," the study says. Reportedly, Kanpur's premier technology institute will roll out another study regarding the anticipated third-wave infection by the end of this week.